The European Commission has just launched a consultation to look into the needs for Internet speed and quality beyond 2020. We need to make sure that our broadband policies are driven by a vision that takes into account all the different scenarios we may face in the next twenty years, says Anna Krzyżanowska, Head of Unit Broadband at DG CONNECT.
The Digital Post: What is the purpose of the consultation?
Anna Krzyżanowska: Just after the launch of the Digital Single Market strategy and five years before the broadbandtarget date we have realized that the most active families and SMEs using current applications and services may be needing more than 30 megabits per second.
At the same time several organizations, including public institutions such as schools, may need a connection of more than 100 megabytes per second in order to perform their online activities.
Hence, having reviewed the available literature and the projections on the increased use of Internet networks, we want to know what is the opinion of the general public regarding the connectivity needs they might have beyond 2020.
Let me also stress one more important element of reflection: at the moment in Europe there is a large availability of publicly supported funds, with the European structural funds alone providing six billion euros for broadband networks and the opportunity to unlock huge resources under the European Strategic Investment Fund.
We need to make sure that these investments are supported by decisions and by a vision that look beyond 2020 to the trends of the next ten or twenty years.
The Digital Post: In a word, the consultation will help shape the new European Digital Single Market after 2020.
Anna Krzyżanowska: Definitely. This consultation is part of an evidence building exercise which will orientate our decisions as to whether or not a new broadband policy should emerge within the context of the digital single market.
It’s not about what we want to build or what we’re building today, but whether that’s going to be enough to enable the considerable benefits that the digital single market can bring us.
This is the main question we are trying to answer through this consultation by focusing on those sectors that will be the main users and beneficiaries of the digital single market.
The Digital Post: What are the sectors whose demand for connectivity will jump in the following years?
Anna Krzyżanowska: We want to listen from people building applications or those currently developing band-hungry services, mainly game producers or media companies.
We will look at the needs that will be generated by cloud computing as well as by the expanding availability of shared software and shared platforms, which is of particular importance for the definition of the needed upload capacity of networks.
In addition to that, there are certain services that will require higher security or ubiquitous access. It is difficult to imagine for instance a ministry of education introducing electronic school books if it cannot do it across the territory.
A similar consideration applies for instance to health monitoring, which could bring enormous savings to the public sector by keeping people out of institutionalized health, i.e. out of hospitals.
We will also take inspiration from the research programs of the Commission focusing on future services: on health services or in the manufacturing sector. And we obviously will talk to automotive companies which are working on the connected car.
At the moment we’re doing fine but what will be the implications for the quality of networks when all of us in Europe will have a connected car?
The Digital Post: And from the point of view of the households what will be the main factors driving a higher demand?
Anna Krzyżanowska: Looking at the future, it is the cloud computing which will mostly drive the need for more connectivity, especially in terms of upload speed. As for the download, the same can be said for the consumption and exchange of video content.
However, it is also very difficult to define what a household is. In the case of somebody starting his own company and working from home the needs of a household turn into those of a small enterprise, and in that particular case the value of services or software sharing becomes extremely important.
In any case, it’s very unpredictable what our home connection will serve in 10 years time. That is why we need to make sure that our investment decisions may reflect the different scenarios we may face in the future.
The Digital Post: However, setting higher broadband targets might stir discontent among some telecoms stakeholders.
Anna Krzyżanowska: The reaction of different stakeholders may be quite predictable. There’s a general resistance in accepting that the world is going in a certain direction.
Hence, we are not starting with a proposal, but rather with a public consultation so as to allow everybody to voice their views and perhaps their reservations.
Having said that, I believe that we can find plenty of examples in which we have underestimated technological developments and the strain they have put on infrastructures.
This is all the more true for the digital networks: we are not only facing more people using these infrastructures but we also facing different ways of using them. Hence, whereas it may be not in the interest of some people to have that discussion, I believe that it is very important.
Big telecom companies often tell us that the demand would not materialize quickly enough. And I believe that in some cases they’re right: there are some countries or certain population categories that are more conservative than others and it’s very difficult to make a generalized statement.
However, I believe that speed or quality of connection is addictive and it is contagious so the more people have it the more people will ask for it and that will probably drive the dynamics of demand fairly quickly.
The Digital Post: What is the link between this consultation and the concomitant consultation on the review of the telecom framework?
Anna Krzyżanowska: Telecom review is a legal requirement of the legislation. On one hand it is written within the legislation that it needs to be periodically reviewed.
Second, the Commission has made a commitment to better regulation and we in general look whether the regulation proposed has fulfilled its objectives, whether it’s still effective efficient and effective and has the right impact.
From that perspective we would have done a review of the framework irrespectively of whether the market needs for connectivity change or not. But since we have an instinct that they are changing and they will be actually changing throughout the period of the review and beyond, it is obviously important to link the two processes.
Regulation is there for a reason and the reason is to make sure that the consumers get the connectivity that they want. From that perspective there’s no difference between the regulatory objective and the policy objective as it is explained in the digital agenda and as it is intended in the digital single market.
I believe it’s particularly good that policy reflection, regulatory fine-tuning or improvements and the availability of funds are actually happening at the same time.
Anna Krzyżanowska is the Head of Unit « Broadband » at DG CONNECT of the European Commission. In addition to policy activities focusing on achieving Digital Agenda for Europe broadband targets, she is coordinating the efforts related to Connecting Europe Facility and future Cohesion Framework in the areas relevant to DG CONNECT.
photo credit: European Commission
By 2020, we are expected to have 50 billion connected devices. Will European Telecoms firms monetize the explosive growth of Internet of Things? The next five years will be critical. In the long term, much may depend on the development of 5G technology.
Like many memes which originate in the web domain (for example Web 2.0), Big Data has an impact on the Telecoms industry. However, unlike Web 2.0 (which is mostly based on the advertising business model), Big Data has wider implications for many domains (for example healthcare, transportation etc).
The term Big Data is now (2014) quite mature. But its impact is yet to be felt across many verticals over the next few years. While Telecoms is also a vertical, it is also an enabler of value for many industries. Hence, there are many areas where Telecoms will interplay with Big Data.
Based on my teaching at Oxford University and the City Sciences program at UPM – Technical University of Madrid – Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, I propose that the value of Big Data for Telecoms lies in IoT (Internet of Things)
IoT is huge, but how huge?
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To put in context: The first commercial citywide cellular network was launched in Japan by NTT in 1979. The milestone of 1 billion mobile phone connections was reached in 2002. The 2 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in 2005. The 3 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in 2007. The 4 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in February 2009.
So, 50 billion by 2020 is a massive number, and no one doubts that number any more. But IoT is really all about Data and that makes it very interesting for the Telcos. Data is important, but increasingly it is also freely available.
Customers are willing to share data. Cities are adopting Open Data initiatives. Big Data itself is based on the increasing availability of Data. IoT is expected to add a huge amount of data too.
But, who will benefit from it and how?
There is a phrase variously attributed to Oil Magnate J Paul Getty – ‘The meek shall inherit the earth, but not its mining rights’. In other words, Data will be free, available and Open, but someone will make money out of it. No doubt, the web players and various start-ups will all monetize this data. But how will Telecoms?
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Here’s why. IoT connectivity will come in two forms: Local area connectivity and Wide area connectivity. Bluetooth 4.0 and iBeacon will provide the local area connectivity. We can expect that from 2015 onwards – most devices retailers will support Bluetooth 4.0.
But the wide area connectivity will still need 5G deployment, which is also the most logical candidate for wide area IoT connectivity. And therein lies the value and business case for Big Data for Telecoms: 5G will be needed to connect the ‘IoT islands’ over the next years.
Will Telecoms monetize IoT ?
Time will tell. Specifically the next five years since most analysts predict that 5G deployments will take place in 2020 and beyond.
The power of connectivity is transforming existing economic, political, and social structures. In a word, the Internet is disrupting established systems. The resulting uncertainty is as much a risk as an opportunity.We are on the hedge of a new frontier.
In December 2003, Sir Arthur C. Clarke noted that “satellite television, Internet, mobile phones, email – all these are technological responses to a deep-rooted human desire to communicate and access information. Having achieved unprecedented progress in the field of communications during the past half century, we now have to pause to think of social, cultural and intellectual implications of what we have created.”
As economies and societies are increasingly becoming data-driven, interactions between individuals, the groups they belong to and the institutions that govern them are evolving dramatically.
The transformational power of connectivity is immense and resonates far beyond technology itself, as the Internet is changing existing dynamics of economic, social and political construct.
Preconceptions of accountability, transparency, privacy, and even democracy are being reconsidered. Political systems, the fabrics of social contracts and the nation state are being challenged by an ever growing desire to know, share and control.
As a result, the enabling power of the Internet is blurring physical borders between countries and peoples, between governments and citizens, between businesses and consumers; what used to create wealth, welfare, influence and power is no longer certain. And this uncertainty is as much a risk as an opportunity.
These evolutions are fuelled by new technologies that disrupt established systems. In this regard, the Internet is no more different than the printing press, the telephone, the light bulb, the locomotive or the airship. These inventions not only served the technical purpose that their creators intended them to have, but also revolutionized systems all together.
The telephone, for instance, provided a new technical way of communicating, but it also generated new rules of etiquette – a new societal way of behaving and communicating. The light bulb transformed factories, cities and homes; it changed the way people live, work and interact. Hence the power of technology lies not only in its mechanics, but also in its capacity to transform the environment it is used in.
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– whether it is between individuals, between businesses, between machines, or between citizens and governments. Information is participation. And participation leads to contribution.
In December 2013, Jason Pontin, Editor of the MIT Technology Review, argued that these new technologies “don’t solve humanity’s big problems.” Indeed, they don’t. But perhaps their purpose is less in solving problems for now, than in creating opportunities for collective contribution.
Ultimately, throughout the world, the big question is one of control: control of information, control of its flow, and protection of that control. As Sir Arthur cautioned, “it is vital to remember that information – in the sense of raw data – is not knowledge; that knowledge is not wisdom; and that wisdom is not foresight. But information is the first essential step to all of these.” In essence, the Information Age is much more than a big problem to be solved; it is humanity’s New Frontier.